In 'Unsettled', Koonin, a theoretical physicist and professor at New York University, expresses his views on climate science. Most significantly, the majority of the authors had only low confidence that any other observed tropical cyclone changes were beyond what could be attributed to natural variability. Absolutely not. Koonins intervention into the debate about what to do about climate risks seems to be designed to subvert this progress in all respects by making distracting, irrelevant, misguided, misleading and unqualified statements about supposed uncertainties that he thinks scientists have buried under the rug. 11/03/22 5:50 PM EDT, Video & Audio He also appeared on the Outsiders program on Sky News Australia on May 8. Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles Andreas Prein, Project Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research: [Comment from a previous evaluation of a similar claim] It is not clear if climate change will make U.S. tornadoes worse or more frequent. In episode 37 of the PetroNerds podcast, Trisha Curtis sits down with Steven E. Koonin, the author of "Unsettled." Trisha and Steve discuss the premise of the book, the elevation of climate change in policy making, potential pitfalls in the data, and the controversial topic of understanding how much humans are influencing global warming and the certainty of that in the reports and analysis. . Some of the major claims Koonin made in his May 6 Fox appearances came directly from his book, which was reviewed in Climate Feedback, a website featuring climate scientists who review dubious climate pieces in the media, reviewed the article and estimated its overall scientific credibility to be very low., Regarding Koonins misleading statement on human impacts on hurricanes, MIT atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel said the most up-to-date research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences demonstrates an increase in the proportion of hurricanes that become major hurricanes (Category 3-5) globally, supporting theoretical predictions that date back to 1987. University of California, Los Angeles climate scientist Daniel Swain echoed this point, noting that the most intense tropical cyclones are indeed becoming stronger in terms of maximum wind speeds and minimum central pressure and are producing more extreme rainfall., In his Kudlow interview, Koonin also downplayed the threat of melting ice and rising sea levels, stating that people worry about the melting of the ice sheets, but thats gonnatake hundreds of years, if it happens. This statement is remarkably wrong. As I discuss in Unsettleds Chapter 6, that conclusion is consonant with those of 2014 US National Climate Assessment and of the subsequent 2017 CSSR (its Section 9.2). He promises to highlight some points likely to surprise anyone who follows the newsfor instance, that the global area burned by fires each year has declined by 25 percent since observations began in 1998. Global statistics are meaningless in this context. the widely discussed 1.5C guardrail.]. Steven E. Koonin Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters Hardcover - April 27 2021 by Steven E. Koonin (Author) 3,762 ratings Kindle Edition $17.99 Read with Our Free App Audiobook $0.00 Free with your Audible trial Hardcover $22.96 11 Used from $15.99 18 New from $22.96 Great on Kindle Great Experience. Distorting science to further a cause is inexcusable, he says, a violation of scientists overriding ethical obligation., Even if such people ultimately prove right, and Koonin wrong, about climate, he is correct to label their willful distortions dangerous and pernicious.. Editor's Note: The following are extracts from Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters, by Steven E. Koonin. It was accompanied by the third, fourth, fifth and sixth largest conflagrations in the states history; and all five of them were still burning on October 3. Thanks for reading Scientific American. The third, which is lengthier and lightly edited, comes from a chapter entitled . Koonins intervention into the debate about what to do about climate risks seems to be designed to subvert this progress in all respects by making distracting, irrelevant, misguided, misleading and unqualified statements about supposed uncertainties that he thinks scientists have buried under the rug. Narrated by: Jay Aaseng. In Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters, Steven Koonin draws upon his decades of experienceincluding as a top science advisor to the Obama administrationto provide up-to-date insights and expert perspective free from political agendas. 11/03/22 4:33 PM EDT, Video & Audio However, Kumps allusion to CO2 concentrations exceeding 1000 ppm in the next several decades is absurd. The two professors, Mark Boslough and Michael Mann, who respond (Letters, Aug. 18) to Steven Koonins op-ed (Climate Change Brings a Flood of Hyperbole, Aug. 11), obviously have not read Mr. Koonins book. He promises to highlight some points likely to surprise anyone who follows the newsfor instance, that the global area burned by fires each year has declined by 25 percent since observations began in 1998. Global statistics are meaningless in this context. The scientific consensus on this is that we simply do not have the data to determine trends in tornadoes, and what little theoretical work has been done on this suggests that severity might go up and frequency might go down, but again there is no real consensus. Wildfires (if that is what he is talking about) are local events whose regional patterns of intensity and frequency fit well into risk-based calibrations because they are increasing in many locations. Create your free account or Sign in to continue. In Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters, Steven Koonin draws upon his decades of experienceincluding as a top science advisor to the Obama administrationto provide up-to-date insights and expert perspective free from political agendas. Steven Koonin will speak at Purdue on Tuesday in Fowler Hall. In short, the science is insufficient to make useful projections about how the climate will change over the coming decades, much less what effect our actions will have on it." Steven E. Koonin, Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters A great climate debate will take place on August 15, 2022 at the Sheen Centre in Lower Manhattan, New York. paper that Emanuel cites with great certainty to support the detection of human influences explicitly says it does not claim such, as I cover on Unsettleds page 120: In that study [Kossin et al;, 2020], the researchers used a new method to analyze satellite imagery of tropical cyclones to determine storm intensity. Over the next couple of years, climate change policy will generate much debate. . A soon-to-be published book by physicist and New York University professor Steven Koonin, Unsettled, convincingly lays out some of the problems a high-quality review would reveal. Koonin implies throughout the book that climate scientists have conspired to downplay uncertainty and exaggerate the risk, apparently unaware of the fact that increased uncertainty means increased risks. They are taken verbatim from his introductory pages so he must want the reader to see them as relevant take-home findings from the entire book. CO2 concentrations are currently some 420 ppm and have been increasing recently by about 2.3 ppm per year. IPCC estimates are that increased heat and drought resulting from anthropogenic warming will slow the rate of yield growth, not reverse it[6]. Steven's book is called 'Unsettled' and it seems to be raising a lot of controversy given it calls into question the alarmist nature of the climate change models we're currently using. Aug. 25, 2021 1:18 pm ET. Steven E. Koonin Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn't, and Why It Matters Hardcover - April 27, 2021 by Steven E. Koonin (Author) 4,001 ratings Editors' pick Best History Kindle $12.99 Read with Our Free App Audiobook $0.00 Free with your Audible trial Hardcover $18.89 35 Used from $11.45 32 New from $12.59 Great on Kindle So statements like record planetary high are meaningless. By LUCAS BLEYLE Climate Reporter. It is unsupportable without qualification because aggregate estimates are so woefully incomplete [Section 19.6.3.5]. Indeed, one analysis finds that climate change could cost nearly $70 trillion by 2100. Impeccably credentialed both scientifically (New York University physics professor; National Academy of Sciences member; chief scientist for BP, focusing on alternative energy) and politically (undersecretary for science in the Obama Energy Department), Koonin has written probably the years most important book. The second half of Unsettleds Chapter 6 covers the points they raise, including the clustering and spatial shifts mentioned by Swain and Prein. As vital as identifying the best climate strategy is, a broader issue involves the willingness of scientists, and the citizens who seek their advice, to tolerate and maybe even welcome the dissident who has the courage to speak the truth as he sees it to the powers of his age. Response: The statement is true, and the fact checkers do not dispute it, but rather give reasons why it is true and why it might not be true in the future. Whats meaningful is that at over 400 parts per million, the atmosphere today has a carbon dioxide level that Earth hasnt seen in the last 25 million years, and climates at that time were warmer than today, ice sheets were smaller, and sea level was higher. Carney's COP26 victory lap in raising US$130 trillion for NetZero transition is questioned as greenwashing, the Financial Post reports.. CALGARY, AB, Nov. 9, 2021 /CNW/ - As reported in the Financial Post of Nov. 9, 2021 . It is important to note that Koonin recognizes this source in his discussion of assessments, and even covers the foundations of the confidence and likelihood language embedded in its findings (specific references from the IPCC report are presented in brackets). Koonin, who is not a climate scientist, has a controversial history within the scientific and political climate change community. Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT: This statement is flat out wrong. Take a more specific example. Emanuel also takes issue with in the past century. A much more honest statement should read something like this from the IPCC Fifth Assessment: there is low to medium confidence in attribution of climate change influence on a few sectors Risks of global aggregate impacts are moderate for additional warming between 1C to 2C compared to 19862005 Aggregate economic damages accelerate with increasing temperature (limited evidence, high agreement) but few quantitative estimates have been completed for additional warming around 3C. Since 2014, more comprehensive studies have offered still incomplete portraits of the correlations between distributions of net economic damage (not just fitted values) along alternative global development pathways and increases in global mean temperature[41]. This is not an unsettled state of affairs. Nevertheless, he has. Take a more specific example. In summary, the current assessment concludes that there is not enough evidence at present to suggest more than low confidence in a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the middle of the 20th century, owing to lack of direct observations, geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. The fact that human influences on hurricanes have not been detected contradicts common perception among non-experts. Heres How to Get In. Climate change is a farce created by the media and the politicians it benefits, physicist Steven Koonin told Tucker Carlson in a new episode of Fox Nation 's " Tucker Carlson Today ." "It's a. Therefore, it doesnt really make sense to make blanket statements regarding overall global drought trends, since only some places are expected to get drier (and others wetter) in a warming climate. As I discussed in a 2018 WSJ OpEd, and further elaborate in Unsettleds Chapter 9, these are minimal impacts on an economy growing at plausibly projected rates, equivalent to a few years delay in growth 70 years from now. It is the future that worries us. In response to Koonin's last media moment earlier this year, Climate Feedback tapped twelve climate scientists to review an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal based on his book, "Unsettled",. Continue reading with a Scientific American subscription. I suggest anyone wishing to engage in the discussion read Steven E. Koonin's book "Unsettled." Koonin served That the planet is has warmed since the industrial revolution is unequivocal with more than 30 percent of that warming having occurred over the last 25 years, and the hottest annual temperatures in that history have followed suit [Section SPM.1]. They have already been falsified. The professors find fault with Mr. Koonins conclusion that better models are required before we waste trillions of dollars trying to avoid the end of the earth as we know it. Democratic National Convention via AP One of the country's top physicists, who served as the Department of Energy Undersecretary during the Obama administration, is out with a new book that. They argue that the gun of climate change is pointed at our head and time is running out. In the early days of research, the uncertainty was wide; but with each subsequent step that uncertainty has narrowed or become better understood. 04/22/21 4:34 PM EDT, Article In fact, these trends are consistent with predictions regarding tropical cyclone behavior due to global warming: there is a strong expectation that the maximum potential intensity of hurricanes will increase due to rising ocean temperatures, even as the overall frequency of such storms does not change greatly or perhaps even decreases[40]. He is also a professor in the Department of Civil and Urban Engineering at NYU's Tandon School of Engineering. Steven E. Koonin Professor of Information, Operations & Management Sciences and the Director, NYU Center for Urban Science and Progress (CUSP); former Under Secretary of Science at the U.S. Department of Energy. Response: Perhaps, as Swain says, it doesnt really make sense to make blanket statements like this, but thats precisely what the IPCC did. Figure 6 The proportion of major hurricane intensities to all hurricane intensities globally from 19792017. A recent paper by Ortiz-Bobea et al. This is largely due to sparse and temporally inhomogeneous historical records in the United States, and virtually non-existent records in other regions. 01/21/21 5:20 PM EST, Article . In the book's first sentences he asserts that "the Science" about our planet's climate is . These criticisms of Koonin's book are complemented by a lengthy, detailed, substantiative review from 12 scientists in Climate Feedback Criticisms are supported with figures and cited references. As Figure 8 shows, is doesnt hold for the recent past at high resolution, but is correct for older times at coarser resolution. Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science, MIT: Koonin sets up a strawman in claiming that tornado frequency and severity are not trending up. Two such statements by Koonin followed the simple preamble For example, both the literature and government reports that summarize and assess the state of climate science say clearly that: Here are a few more statements from Koonins first two pages under the introduction that Here are three more that might surprise you, drawn from recently published research or the latest assessments of climate science published by the US government and the UN: The first of these misdirection statements about Greenland is even more troubling because the rise in global mean sea level has accelerated. Cliches, however shopworn, can retain their usefulness provided they continue to describe their object with some accuracy. The x-axis refers to temperature change (C) for 20802099 relative to 19802010. Koonin's research indicates the climate is changing and humans have influenced some of that change. And if it were to occur, it would be made up by 2 years of growth. If temperatures rise by 5 degrees Celsius over that same period, Koonin notes that, according to the 2018 National Climate Assessment, our growth would be 4 percent less 70 years from now. Read35 mins ago | William Nattrass, Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles Response: The fact checkers do not dispute the statement, which surprises most non-experts, who typically believe that human influences on the climate are the dominant cause of fires. Read36 mins ago | The Editorial Board, Article viewed iconAn icon to mark the viewed articles When it comes to climate change, the media, politicians, and other prominent voices have declared that "the science is settled." In reality, the long game of telephone from research to reports to the popular media is corrupted by misunderstanding and misinformation. Gary Yohe is the Huffington Foundation Professor of Economics and Environmental Studies, Emeritus, at Wesleyan University in Connecticut. It is living inside a moving picture of what is happening portrayed with sharper clarity and more detail with every new peer-reviewed paper. Take, for example, the 2020 experience. The U.S. government's Climate Science Special Report, to be released Friday, does not provide that foundation. For times before ice cores (>800,000 years) CO2 levels have to be inferred less directly from geochemical or biological proxies. Physicist Steven Koonin, a former BP chief scientist and Obama administration energy official, seeks to downplay climate change risk in his new book, "Unsettled: What Climate Science. By Dr. Steven E. Koonin April 24, 2021 10:23am Updated The media constantly points to tragic fires in places like Australia (pictured) and California as evidence of climate change. Steven E. Koonin is a genuine example of someone daring to challenge a prevailing orthodoxy. Twila Moon of the University of Colorado stated that over the last 20 years, ice loss has been rapid and large, creating measurable sea level rise. Postdoctoral researcher Thomas Frederikse agreed, saying thattide-gauge observations show that sea levels are persistently accelerating since the 1960s, and overall, the observed sea-level rise during the 20th century is higher than during any other century over the last 3000 years., Koonins claims downplaying the effectiveness of climate models are also wrong. The first two, which are brief, are from the introduction. As detailed in The Post earlier this year, the book uses government and academic reports own data to challenge the scientific consensus about rising sea levels, droughts, extreme weather now repeated endlessly and uncritically. Learn on the go with our new app. And along the way, hes been promoted by notorious climate deniers Marc Morano and Steve Milloy. It is, however, well-covered in Unsettleds Chapter 6. in some ways this piece represents a material step forward in the annals of the Wall Street Journal's coverage of climate change: Koonin writes that the human . A New Book Manages to Get Climate Science Badly Wrong In Unsettled, Steven Koonin deploys that highly misleading label to falsely suggest that we don't understand the risks well enough to. We are delighted that you'd like to resume your subscription. Going farther back atmospheric CO2 concentrations becomes less certain, but probably it was higher than present during much of the long warm period prior to Antarctic glaciation beginning 34 million years ago and going back to the last major ice age in the Carboniferous, about 300 million years ago[43]. One must hope that his courage and sense of scientific morality, if not his specific viewpoint on. There are other similarities between these individuals as well -- all are highly controversial within the climate science community, while their major works have been fact-checked and discredited by actual climate scientists and experts. The graph Yohe presents from the 2018 National Climate Assessment shows something similar for the US economy. it also is a logical fallacy to say that if things arent causing a net decrease then it isnt a concern.
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